A book that’s high on my recommended reading list is America Alone, by Mark Steyn.  This is an entertaining read, as Mr. Steyn delivers his message with ironic humor. If it were otherwise, the book would be depressing due to the geopolitical ramifications. 

Mr. Steyn’s expertise is demography, the study of populations and the factors that define them.  The premise is best stated in his own words, “The most important quotation in the entire text is… a bald statement by the late historian Arnold Toynbee: ‘Civilizations die from suicide, not murder.’” The meaning of this will become clear later in this commentary.

In his prologue, Steyn lays out the theme of the book in noting that, “In 1970, the developed nations had twice as big a share of the global population as the Muslim world: 30 percent to 15 percent.  By 2000, they were at parity: each had about 20 percent.”  There are dire consequences of this shift.  “… almost every geopolitical crisis takes place on what Samuel Huntington, in The Clash of Civilizations, calls ‘the boundary looping across Eurasia and Africa that separates Muslims from non-Muslims.’” However, Steyn carefully notes, “Just for the record, my book is not about Islam, not really.  Rather, it posits Islam as an opportunist beneficiary of Western self-enfeeblement.”

Steyn methodically demonstrates an alarming trend in population statistics: in every industrialized nation - except for the United States - the fertility rate is below 2.1 children per adult female. The importance of this number is: it is the population replacement rate. A higher rate will spur population increase and anything less will result in a contraction, a trend that no civilization has ever survived.  He enumerates statistical facts and anecdotal evidence that support his premise.  Japan, Russia, Canada and every western European country are all in severe population decline, with fertility rates as low as 1.1.  This trend is due to a number of factors:

• The alarmist notion of the population ‘bomb’.
• Ecochondriac’s claim of vanishing natural resources and the humanity-centric influence on global warming.
• The culture of death that surrounds abortion on demand.
• The financial strain that children represent in an urban, high-tech world.
• Humanistic self-indulgence that dismisses the worth of future generations.

The trend is ubiquitous: Italy has a fertility rate of 1.2, Spain, 1.1. My Big Fat Greek Wedding will quickly be anachronistic with a fertility rate of only 1.3 in Greece. By 2050, fully sixty percent of all Italians will have no brothers, no sisters, no cousins, no aunts and no uncles.  Four grandparents will have to dote all their affection on one grandchild - if they are fortunate enough to have even one.

Europe’s lavish social programs have been in serious trouble - far worse shape than the imminent collapse of the Social Security system here in the U.S.  The median age in European countries is about 40, with Germany being the highest at 43.  This simply means that there haven’t been enough babies in more than a score of years to bolster the aging workforce as it hobbles into the entitlement years.  The dearth of tax-paying yuppies means a greater burden placed on those foolish enough to stick around.  So what are the oldsters to do?

The European solution has been to import their workforce.  The prime supplier of that workforce? Countries with high birthrates: Niger is 7.46; Mali, 7.42; Somalia, 6.76; Afghanistan, 6.69; Yemen, 6.58. As Steyn wryly observes, “Notice what those nations have in common? Starts with an I, ends with a slam, As in: slam dunk.”

The result of this trend should be cause for concern.  The Muslim population of Rotterdam is forty percent.  The most popular baby boy’s name in Belgium is Mohammed.  In Amsterdam: Mohammed. In Malmö, Sweden: Mohammed.  The British cannot breathe any easier.  In the United Kingdom, Mohammed is the fifth most popular baby boy’s name.

The most entertaining aspect of Steyn’s book is the anecdotal commentary. His stinging wit lays bare the social policies that have weakened his home country Canada, Russia and Europe.  He extends a warning to America and beseeches us to wake up before it is too late.  In my estimation, Steyn hit a home run with his book. It is a must-read for anyone who cares about the future that our grandchildren will inherit.  Or someone else’s grandchildren…

I recently watched a video in which the dictator of Libya, Muammar Khadafi, predicted the annexing of Turkey by the European Union would make Islam the greatest religion in, and would herald the final overthrow of, Europe.

Lest I be guilty of buying into an urban legend, I did my own research.  The CIA maintains an incredible website: The World Factbook, which is updated every two weeks.  I compiled the attached CIA World Factbook Summary and developed my own Slam Dunk Index. The components are:

Fertility rate of greater than 4.0

• Unemployment rate greater than 10%
• Immigration rate less than zero; more people are leaving than coming
• Male literacy rate less than 70% - An indication of pervasive low job skills
• Population density greater than 100 people per sqare kilometer
• Gross Domestic Product less than $5,000 per year per capita
• Median age less than 30.

I assigned a value of one for each of these indicators and ranked them, greatest to lowest.  In my estimation, the higher the number, the greater the level of dissatisfaction. 

I believe it is a recipe for disaster: high birthrates combined with minimal skills for the work force, insufficient job availability, low income potential, no economic engine to spur growth, a steady stream of emmigrants leading the way to a better life, and lots of youthful energy to fuel discontent for those left behind.  Interestingly, in the countries scoring three or greater, there are 955 million Muslims. That’s one out of six people on the planet.  My calculation is based upon the total population of those countries multiplied by the percentage estimated to be Muslim.

It’s also interesting to note that, out of all the countries for which data is available, the top six countries in which males outnumber females are all in the Saudi Arabian peninsula, the Wahabbi cauldron that produced the bulk of 9-11 terrorists.  See the second tab of my spreadsheet for the statistical analysis that supports this.  Considering that wealthy Arabian men marry as many as four wives, that leaves a lot of pent-up testosterone looking for an outlet. At a miniumum, there are in excess of 6 million men on the Saudi peninsula with no prospect for a mate.  Keep in mind the statistic that 90% of all violent crime is perpetrated by single males.

In closing, I want to offer a spiritual challenge. As daunting as these demographics are, God is still on the throne and none of this has caught Him by surprise.  He only asks that His people be available and He will be responsible for the outcome.  I listened to a sermon by Dr. Sameh M. Tawfik this morning. He is the pastor of the largest church in the Muslim world, the Kasr el-Dobara Evangelical Church, located in Cairo, Egypt.  He indicated that the Lord has been penetrating the Islamic world to a greater degree in the past 10 years than in the whole 1,400 years of Muslim expansion. He attributes this to the faithful prayers of His people and reports that hundreds of thousands of Muslims are coming to know Jesus Christ as their savior.  I received a similar report from Dr. John Reinhold, president of the American Evangelistic Association.  He told me that their ELAM affiliate is reporting from 5 to 20 thousand converts to Christ in Iran each month.

Please pray fervently for these ministry opportunities and consider whether you should respond as Isaiah, “Here am I, Lord.  Send me.”

Liam Roberts

Previous blog entries you may find interesting:

Hand-Wringing Diplomacy; Why Mideast Peace Will Remain an Impossible Goal
Profile of A Reluctant Hero
Honoring America’s Fallen Warriors
A Woman’s Place in Islam
Islamic Law Requires Breast Feeding of Male Co-workers
What is the Qur’an? Archaeological Find May Invalidate the Current Version
Love Your Enemies and Pray For Those Who Persecute You
Madrassah Schools: Why They Pose a Threat to Western Civilization
Validity of Scripture: A Response to a Muslim
Violence in the Bible: A Response to a Muslim
The Historic Alliance of Christianity and Science
DNA and the Flood: The Biblical Account May be Written in Our Genetic Code
Jihad.com: Islamofascists Are Recruiting Via the Internet
A Brief History of Islam
Submission: The Movie That Led To The Assassination of Theo Van Gogh

BlueBuckeye73 responded to my previous blog post.  My response below was too lengthy to be posted as a comment.

BlueBuckeye73:

You are correct, virtually anything has been done in the name of religion. Unfortunately, Christianity has its blemishes too. During the Inquisition, apostates were tortured and put to death, and the Crusades included crimes against humanity. I want to emphasize here that these alleged Christians acted in direct violation of the religion they supposedly embraced and betrayed the One whom they claimed to serve.  History and Biblical Christianity rightly condemn their actions. The important point is that there are no teachings of Jesus to support violence; in contrast, he clearly admonished us to love our enemies and to pray for them. Even if one tries to justify inhumanity by pointing to the Old Testament, the passages that promoted violence against unbelievers were in a particular historical setting, against the particular pagan inhabitants of the Promised Land.

When addressing Islam, it is an entirely different matter. The passages of the Qur'an that speak of peace were from the early years (in Mecca) of Muhammad's fledgling movement; when he was forced to be diplomatic due to his tenuous power base. After he was exiled to Medina, he built a powerful army and issued Qur'anic verses that abrogated (a legal term in Islam that acknowledges Muhammad's right to amend and negate earlier verses from the Qur'an) the verses that promoted peace.

Before his death, Muhammad announced Allah's intention of subjugating the entire world under the authority of Shar'ia law. Those who would not bend their knee to Allah were given three choices: 1. To be banished, 2. To be taxed into poverty, or 3. To be put to death. Throughout the 1,400 years of Islamic conquest, the preferred tool of evangelism has been the scimitar.

Regarding apostates: anyone who renounces the authority of the Prophet, or turns away from the strict application of the Qur'an is pronounced a murtadd (an apostate).  Further, any verbal denial of any principle of Muslim belief is considered apostasy. Since the peaceful passages of the Qur'an were abrogated by the later, violent passages, a strong case can be made that peaceful Muslims are apostates.

It is quite clear that under Islamic law an apostate must be put to death. There is no dispute on this ruling among classical Muslim or modern scholars.

Surah 2:217 was interpreted by al-Shafii (died 820 A.D.), the founder of an orthodox school of Sunni Islam law, to mean that the death penalty should be prescribed for apostates. The passage reads, "But whoever of you recants and dies an unbeliever, his works shall come to nothing in this world and the next, and they are the companions of the fire [Hell] for ever (sic)."  Historians Al-Thalabi and al-Khazan concur. Al-Razi, a scholar from the turn of the century, in his commentary on surah 2:217, says the apostate should be killed.

Similarly, surah 4:89 reads: "They would have you disbelieve as they themselves have disbelieved, so that you may be all alike. Do not befriend them until they have fled their homes for the cause of God. If they desert you seize them and put them to death whereever you find them. Baydawi, an Islamic scholar who died in 1316 interpreted this passage to mean, "Whosoever turns his back from his belief (irtada), openly or secretly, take him and hill him wheresoever ye find him, like any other infidel."

In summary, BlueBuckeye73, Christians who promote violence act in defiance of the Bible, but Muslims who do the same operate in faithful obedience to their holy book. As I have one of my characters say in my recent novel, "The Y Factor," the difference between the Bible and the Qur'an is this: The Bible teaches us to love and pray; the Qur'an to hate and slay.

In closing, I'll note that fundamentalist Muslims have expressed their hatred toward infidels and apostates from the earliest days of Islam. This has included assassinations [a term with Muslim origins] of rival Caliphs, Imams and other religious leaders, ethnic cleansing (centuries before the term was popularized), wanton destruction of mosques during prayer, and the slaughter of faithful followers of divergent Islamic sects during pilgrimages. But it doesn't stop there. Even in secular Muslim countries - in the 21st century - it is a holy obligation for fathers and brothers to put to death any family member that converts to a rival religion. This is done with the sanction of the civil government.

As Ravi Zacharias has so eloquently stated: “…any religion not willing to examine itself will gain a following only through intimidation and fear.  It then evicts itself from the public square of honest and truthful debate.  Graves are the legacy of such beliefs… The coercion of religious faith is an oxymoron.  It is then no longer a religion but an ideology of compulsion.”

Sources:

Apostasy, Human Rights, Religion and Belief, a paper delivered at the Palais des Nations, Geneva, April 7, 2004.

Ibn Kathir, L'interpretation du Coran, trans. Fawzi Chaaban (Beirut: Dar al-Fikr, 1998), 2:128.

Samuel M. Zwemer, The Law of Apostasy in Islam (Londan and New York, Marshall Brothers, 1924), pp. 34-35.

Robert Spencer, The Myth of Islamic Tolerance; How Islamic Law Treats Non-Muslims (Prometheus Books, New York, 2005)pp. 428-437.

Ravi Zacharias, Light in the Shadow of Jihad; the Struggle for Truth, (Multnomah Publishers, Inc., 2002), pg. 30.

This posting is response to Michael Reagan's article from Friday, Dec. 27, 2007: Memo to Reid Pelosi Co

Debate is good - if we are willing to hear each other, broaden our perspective and modify our position, as appropriate. Most of the debaters here need to understand that resorting to ad hominem attacks only exposes the shallowness of their arguments. They are truly a mile wide and an inch deep. They cast dispersions, but offer nothing of substance. And they distract us from the very real dangers that need to be addressed when they attack the motives of those involved in the struggle.

Michael Reagan is correct - the threat is real. Evil is real. Edmund Burke said it best: "All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing." The 20th century should have taught us that evil will advance unless it is met with determination and force. Appeasement has never worked.

The essential step is to identify the enemy and develop a strategy for engaging him. 'War on Terror' is too vague, and the Administration erred by adopting that label. The identification error is responsible for the erratic prosecution of this war, which tends to resemble a global whack-a-mole.

But war is very complex. Few leaders have been successful without missteps. Honest Abe delegated to a number of incompetent military experts, resulting in a tragic death toll before victory - and liberty for slaves - was achieved.

President Bush has faced similar difficulties, made more complex by ever-evolving tactics and the multi-faceted nature of our adversary.  Could he have done better? Surely. He's made many mistakes. But it appears he now has the right leadership in place.  We can pray that al Qaeda has finally realized the futility of a frontal assault against our superior weaponry and military resolve. They and the Taliban have been more effective terrorizing tribal peoples with no means of defense.

It is time to clearly identify the enemy. Most of the conversation here has been in reference to heads of state. That's more distracting than thinking our adversary is terrorism.

To state it boldly: Militant Islam is the greatest threat to civilization and will continue to advance unless dealt with systematically and comprehensively. The scope is truly global; Islam is engaging civilization on every front: philosophically, theologically, militarily and demographically. The only reason they are able to engage us economically is due to their fortuitous oil deposits. Other than that, their 7th century mentality doesn't provide the necessary impetus for effective commerce. The vast wealth created from oil is not being used to improve the infrastructure, healthcare or the welfare of Muslims; the billions are being spent exporting Wahhabism, the most virulent form of Islam - via the construction of untold mosques and Madrassah schools worldwide.

I know that many of you question the moral superiority of 'civilization' with good cause. That attitude tends to correlate with America-guilt and its attendant self-deprecation. I would encourage you to focus instead on the blessings we enjoy, especially the inalienable right of liberty. It may not all be about us, as our Canadian friend notes, but collectively, the Anglo nations of the world are in the best position to export true liberty.

Islam is the antithesis of liberty. The very definition is 'to subjugate.' Some would argue that the definition is 'submission,' as in submission to Allah, but that ignores the clear mandate of the Qur'an, which is to impose worldwide submission to Allah. The preferred tool of implementation throughout Islam's 1,400 year history has been the scimitar.  The tools may have evolved, but the mission remains the same.

To anticipate your affront: Yes, there are peaceful Muslims. They deserve our protection, for they are considered apostates.   Those courageous enough to stand up to militant Islam are ruthlessly silenced. Why? Because faithful interpretation of the Qur'an demands their execution.

It is time for the veil to be lifted.

I include many of these points in more detail on my blog: http://blog.Y-factor.net